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Online Sample Chapter: Maybe the Fans Are Right

Don't they want to win?

Don’t they want to win? Every sports fan asks that question. And no wonder! Teams have an immense amount of detailed, quantifiable information to draw upon. They have powerful incentives for making good decisions. Everyone sees the results of their choices, and the consequences for failure are severe. And yet, they keep making the same mistakes over and over again...mistakes you’d think they’d learn how to avoid!

Now, two leading sports economists reveal those mistakes in basketball, baseball, football, and hockey—and explain why sports decision-makers never seem to learn their lessons. You’ll learn which statistics are linked to wins and which aren’t…and which statistics can predict the future and which can’t (information that just might help you dominate your next fantasy league!).

The next quantum leap beyond Moneyball, this book offers powerful new insights into all human decision-making. Because if multimillion dollar sports teams are getting it wrong this badly, how do you know you’re not?

  • Do better coaches really win more? Phil Jackson versus everyone else
  • The “hot hand ” and other figments of the imagination Enduring myths of on-court and o
  • Are black quarterbacks underpaid? The curious cases of Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre

Table of Contents

Foreword. . . xiii
Acknowledgments. . . xiv
About the Authors. . . xvi
Preface . . . xvii


Chapter 1: Maybe the Fans Are Right . . . 1
Sporting Rationality. . . 3
Crunchers, “Experts,” and the Wrath of Randomness . . . 5
A Century of Mistakes in Baseball . . . 7

Chapter 2: Defending Isiah. . . 13
Isiah Thomas Illustrates How Money Can’t Buy You Love. . . 14
Getting Paid in the NBA. . . 20
Coaching Contradictions. . . 23
Isiah’s Defense. . . 28
ADDITIONAL NOTES FOR CHAPTER TWO

Chapter 3: The Search for Useful Stats . . . 33
Identifying the Most “Useful” Numbers . . . 33
The Most Important Position in Team Sports? . . . 39
Assigning Wins and Losses . . . 47
ADDITIONAL NOTES FOR CHAPTER THREE

Chapter 4: Football in Black and White . . . 49
A Brief History of the Black Quarterback . . . 50
Performance in Black and White . . . 55
Quarterback Pay in Black and White . . . 63

Chapter 5: Finding the Face of the Franchise . . . 67
Birth of the Draft . . . 68
The Problem with Picking First . . . 69
How to Get Picked First? . . . 78
Back to Kostka. . . . 80
ADDITIONAL NOTES FOR CHAPTER FIVE

Chapter 6: The Pareto Principle and Drafting Mistakes . . . 83
The Pareto Principle and Losing to Win . . . 83
The NBA Draft and NBA Performance. . . 93
Catching a Baseball Draft . . . 100

Chapter 7: Inefficient on the Field . . . 103
Just Go For It! . . . 106
Evaluating the Little Man in Football . . . 113
The Hot Hand and Coaching Contradictions . . . 115

Chapter 8: Is It the Teacher or the Students? . . . 119
The Wealth of Coaching . . . 120
“Take Your’n and Beat His’n” . . . 122
Deck Chairs? . . . 125
Growing Older and Diminishing Returns . . . 126
Putting the Picture Together . . . 132
ADDITIONAL NOTES FOR CHAPTER EIGHT

Chapter 9: Painting a Bigger Picture . . . 135
Appendix A: Measuring Wins Produced in the NBA . . . 141
A Very Brief Introduction to Regression Analysis . . . 141
Modeling Wins in the NBA . . . 143
Calculating Wins Produced in the NBA. . . 148
Win Score and PAWS48 . . . 154
A Comment on Alternatives . . . 156
Three Objections to Wins Produced for the NBA . . . 158
CALCULATING WINS PRODUCED

Appendix B: Measuring Wins Produced in the NFL . . . 161
Endnotes. . . 173
References . . . 209
Books and Articles . . . 209
Web Sites . . . 222
Index . . . 225